What Are Their Chances?
By Otomewo Oritsejolomi
Four years have gone by and the country is going through another election cycle. The business of governance has largely been put on hold as all gladiators in this contest prepare for battle. But this time around there is an added twist to make things more interesting; for the first time in the country’s history, there is a credible third force candidate and the game is too open for anyone to confidently boast of winning.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC)
The unofficial leader of the Yoruba’s threw his hat into the ring with the claim that it was his turn to be the president by virtue of the role he played in elevating President Muhammadu Buhari to Aso rock. And that he was the right man for the job. But the journey to the presidency will require more than just his wishes, the highest office in the land isn’t just handed over to whoever claims it.
Already his campaign has been beset by some challenges most notably the question of his health. Several videos have proliferated social media showing the Jagaban’s health might be a cause for serious concern. His frequent trips abroad doesn’t help matters. The country has already suffered from the consequences of electing two ailing presidents and the people are weary of making the same mistake a third time.
Another concern for the Tinubu candidacy is the choice of vice president in former Borno state governor Kashim Shettima. In a country with deep religious divide, the ideal for maintaining a sense of order has been fielding a presidential ticket with both a Southern Christian and a Northern Muslim. But Tinubu has turned convention on it’s head with the choice of a fellow Muslim as a running mate. A decision frowned on by the Christian South. It is left to be seen if it will impact his chances in the forthcoming election. Also his association with Buhari and the many failures of his presidency including the Lekki tollgate shootings, which Tinubu denied ever happening.
However, as the candidate of the ruling party with a significant support base in the North, he is still the candidate to beat. He has shown in previous elections that he is not afraid to wield his influence and access to resources to enforce his will on the state. This time will be no different.
Atiku Abubakar (PDP)
Nobody has made as many attempts to rule this country as Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Since 1993 in the defunct third Republic, and excluding the two election cycles where he was running mate to Olusegun Obasanjo, the former customs officer has made a bid for the presidency in all elections. And as things stand, this bid could not be different from the others.
In the eight years since the PDP has been ousted from power it has failed to adapt into an opposition party and this more than anything can unfortunately impact Atiku’s bid for the presidency. While there is general discontent among the populace over the present administration, significant opposition has not come from Atiku or the PDP which has given rise to claims that he is complicit in the ills of the Buhari administration, especially since he played an essential role in the former’s rise to power.
Also his choice of running mate has divided his party. Alienating the powerful Nyesome Wike by picking Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State as running mate could be the loose knot that makes his nicely made plans come undone. However Atiku has one significant strength, he is the major candidate from the North. The Northerners have been known to rally around their own. You can ask President Buhari.
Peter Obi (Labour Party)
On Oct 1st the streets of major cities across the country were filled with Nigerians.
They hadn’t come out to celebrate the nation’s 62nd anniversary, but to campaign for the candidate they believe would make the next anniversary worth celebrating. For the first time since the start of the fourth Republic there is a credible third force to challenge the status quo.
Peter Obi, the former Anambra state governor is regarded as clean without any corruption allegations to mar the period of his stewardship over his state. He is notorious for being frugal, stingy – he was impeached for not inflating the budget. His strong grasp of the economic realities of the country have endeared him to millions of Nigerians with a significant support base among the youths who have trooped out to support him. His intellectual capabilities have prompted invitations from top universities in the world including Oxford and Harvard. The same cannot be said for the other candidates who do not even grant interviews.
However Obi chances are a longshot, he is the newcomer in a race between two established parties. His labour party is lacking in the nationwide infrastructure usually required to win an election. Also in a country regarded as the poverty capital of the world, electoral malpractice including vote buying still persists. His studious refusal to engage in anything below board will no doubt weigh heavily on his chances.
Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP)
Rabiu Kwankwaso former governor of Kano State is the next candidate with a chance of winning the presidency. In the same way Tinubu has cast himself in the mould of the late Chief Awolowo, Kwankwaso has modeled himself after the late Aminu Kano, a foremost Northern intellectual and politician. Like Aminu Kano, Kwankwaso during his time as governor championed education and human capital development which has endeared him to the millions of disillusioned Northern youths who now make up the majority of his support base.
However Kwankwaso major challenge is that his party is predominantly a Northern party without any significant support base in the south. He refused to align with Peter Obi to form a stronger third force option, preferring to go his own way. This decision may have been for the best or severely impact his chances at the polls.
BAT all the way
Pdp really fumbled the bag by letting Peter Obi leave.
Peter Obi will win by God’s grace.
God will not allow the evil that is a Tinubu presidency befall this country
This Kwankwaso doesn’t even stand a chance, this one no be Kano state election