By Otomewo Oritsejolomi Joshua.
Since the beginning of the year, a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a hot topic on several news stations. As the Russian army gradually amassed troops along the border with its neighbors and several countries closed their embassies and asked their citizens to return home in anticipation of a possible war, news presenters, analysts, and pundits all over the world traded opinions on whether it was just a power play by President Vladimir Putin. But the former KGB spy put an end to all speculations on the morning of Thursday, 24th of February when Russian troops started a ground invasion of Ukraine, starting what could possibly become a third world war.
Ukraine like Georgia, and Belarus once belonged to the Soviet Union of which Russia was the overall Head. Beset by several institutional problems, the Soviet Union began to deteriorate and eventually collapsed, and these states gained independence. Like all independent states free to determine their identity Ukraine started to move away from Russian socialist values to Western capitalist values. Eventually requesting to join NATO.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was formed in 1949 after the second world war to protect European countries from the threat of Soviet expansion and colonization. It was founded on the simple promise that an attack on one member nation would be an attack on all members. And each of the member countries most notably the United States would come to the defense of any country under attack.
Ukraine’s continued movement towards the west in culture and ideology is regarded by Putin as a serious threat to his control in the region and the internal stability of Russia. In 2007 the United States pushed for Ukraine to join NATO but this movement failed because there was no consensus among the member countries. In 2014, Russia invaded and successfully annexed the Crimean peninsula which hosted a Russian military base. This was the beginning of bitter hostilities between the two countries. Since 2014, Russia has sponsored Ukrainian rebels seeking independence in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine.
The hostilities started to spiral out of control in Sept 2021 when the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy started another movement to gain NATO membership. Putin refused to accept this as a NATO country sharing a border with Russia would pose a serious threat to Russian national security and asked President Biden to guarantee that Ukraine will never be added to NATO. But the United States refused and Russia started a massive buildup of troops along the Ukrainian border. And on Thursday a full scale invasion started. In a speech just before the invasion started President Putin stated that his goal wasn’t to occupy Ukraine but to demilitarize which means to destroy its armed forces.
As to the question of a world war arising from this conflict? No one can make a correct prediction. Putin had threatened severe consequences on any country that attempts to interfere. A world war only starts when the world powers get involved and the two major powers with any chances of successfully opposing Russia in this conflict are the United States and China.
The Biden led government of the United States which just ended the 20 year war in Afghanistan has made it clear that it is not ready to go into another war. Ukraine is not on the border of the United States, the US has no military base in Ukraine, and Ukraine is not an important trading partner. There are no compelling reasons why President Biden, who is very opposed to war, will risk the lives of his soldiers to defend Ukraine. However President Biden has imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia cutting it’s banks off from the western financial system.
As for China, it has maintained an almost neutral stance on the issue and refused to forcefully oppose Russia with which it has very close relations.
However, the situation can change quickly. Russia has used the pretext of Ukraine joining NATO to invade the country which it has always regarded as a part of Russia. But will Putin stop in Ukraine? Will he go after other former Soviet States and attempt to unite them to form a new Soviet Union? This is the pressing question on everyone’s mind. If he does then the United States might be forced to join the conflict.
Currently, the situation in Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating. Amidst a developing refugee crisis the Ukrainian government has declared a state of emergency and announced the conscription of men aged 16 – 60. According to President Zelenskiy 137 civilians and military personnel have already been killed in the conflict. Despite the brave efforts of the Ukrainian army to defend itself, Russia has made several gains capturing or destroying key facilities like airports and military bases.
Thanks for breaking it down.
🔥🔥🔥
Nice Read
Really helpful explainer
The Ukrainians are really brave to resist Russia
Russia really should stop this aggression nobody gains anything from war