By Sunkanmi Adewunmi
As the world marks three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the conflict remains a defining global crisis. Despite numerous peace talks, the war rages on, reshaping international politics, economies, and security landscapes. What began as a calculated military offensive has spiraled into a prolonged, devastating confrontation with far-reaching consequences.
Key Events of the War
- February 24, 2022: Russia launches its full-scale invasion, prompting swift global sanctions and an outpouring of military and financial aid to Ukraine.
- March 2022: Ukrainian forces successfully repel Russian troops from Kyiv, shifting the war’s focus to the east and south.
- August 2022: Ukraine’s counteroffensive liberates significant portions of Kharkiv, showcasing its strategic prowess.
- November 2022: Russian forces withdraw from Kherson, but Moscow retaliates with relentless missile barrages throughout the winter.
- January 2025: The U.S. and Russia engage in peace talks, controversially excluding Ukraine from the discussions.
- February 2025: Russia launches its largest drone assault yet, escalating tensions and reaffirming its aggressive stance.
The War’s Global Impact
Economic Disruptions
1. Energy Crisis and Europe’s Shift Away from Russia:
Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas forced Europe to diversify its energy sources. The immediate effect was a spike in global energy prices, fuelling inflation. However, the crisis accelerated Europe’s commitment to renewable energy, reducing its dependence on Russian resources.
2. Food Insecurity and Supply Chain Disruptions:
Ukraine and Russia, both major wheat exporters, saw their agricultural exports severely disrupted, leading to food shortages and soaring prices, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. While some shipments have resumed under negotiated agreements, uncertainty looms over long-term stability.
Military and Political Shifts
1. A Stronger, More United NATO:
The war has transformed Europe’s defence posture. Defence budgets have soared, and NATO has expanded with Finland and Sweden joining the alliance—a direct countermeasure to Russian aggression.
2. Ukraine’s Indomitable Will:
Despite heavy casualties, Ukraine remains steadfast. Wounded soldiers, including amputees, are returning to active duty, embodying the country’s unyielding determination to defend its sovereignty.
3. Russia’s Internal Struggles:
Prolonged war and crippling sanctions have taken a toll on Russia’s economy. While state propaganda continues to justify the conflict, opposition movements, though suppressed, persist in challenging Putin’s war narrative.
Major Developments in 2025
1. Russia’s Record-Breaking Drone Assault:
On the third anniversary of the invasion, Russia launched an unprecedented 267 drones at Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv. While Ukraine’s air defences intercepted many, critical infrastructure suffered significant damage, prolonging the humanitarian crisis.
2. Peace Talks Without Ukraine:
The U.S. and Russia have engaged in negotiations that notably exclude Ukraine. This has raised alarm, with President Zelensky rejecting any settlement made without Ukrainian input. The talks have ignited fears of a forced compromise that could undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty.
3. Zelensky’s Leadership and U.S. Relations:
President Zelensky has hinted at stepping down if it guarantees peace and Ukraine’s NATO membership. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has criticised Ukraine’s handling of the war, signalling potential shifts in American support.
Economic and Geopolitical Maneuvering
1. U.S.-Ukraine Critical Minerals Agreement
The U.S. and Ukraine are negotiating a deal in which Ukraine would allocate 50% of its resource revenues to a Reconstruction Investment Fund until it reaches $500 billion. This is in exchange for U.S. support in post-war recovery. However, Ukraine initially rejected the proposal, arguing it unfairly favoured U.S. interests and lacked clear security guarantees against future Russian aggression. While discussions continue, concerns remain over whether the deal will include long-term military aid and security commitments. President Zelenskyy is expected to visit Washington to finalise the agreement, but key issues are still unresolved.
2. European Union’s Debate on Frozen Russian Assets
The European Union is considering seizing over $200 billion in frozen Russian assets as leverage in peace negotiations and to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction. However, key nations such as France, Germany, and Italy have raised legal concerns. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had previously proposed using the interest from these assets, as Ukraine’s reconstruction is estimated to cost a staggering $524 billion over the next decade.
3. Ukrainian Military Morale and Strategic Planning
Despite the hardships, Ukrainian troops remain resolute. Units like the 21st Battalion continue rigorous training near the Russia-Ukraine border, enduring harsh winter conditions. Strategic discussions have identified Kursk as a potential bargaining chip in future negotiations, though Ukraine remains firm in reclaiming all occupied territories.
What’s next?
As the war enters its fourth year, several pressing questions remain unanswered:
- Will ongoing peace talks yield a meaningful ceasefire, or is the conflict destined to drag on?
- Can Ukraine sustain its military resistance amid shifting international support?
- How will changing U.S. and European policies reshape the war’s trajectory?
With no definitive resolution in sight, the ramifications of this war will continue to shape global security, economic stability, and geopolitical alliances for years to come.
