By Bababunmi Agbebi
Edited by Ezennia Uche
Nigeria’s economy is poised to achieve its most rapid expansion in more than ten years in 2026 and 2027, the World Bank has projected in its latest Global Economic Prospects report. The development lender has upgraded the country’s growth outlook to 4.4 per cent for both years, underscoring a strengthening macroeconomic momentum amid ongoing reforms.
In its January 2026 report, the World Bank highlighted that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded to an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2025, driven primarily by robust performance in the services sector particularly finance, information and communication technology (ICT) as well as a modest recovery in agriculture.
Looking ahead, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, the fastest pace recorded in over a decade. This optimism reflects not only current gains but also structural shifts in the composition of growth, with services, agriculture, and non-oil industrial activities playing an increasingly significant role.
According to the report, a combination of economic reforms, continued prudent monetary policy, and improved investor sentiment underpins the upgraded outlook. Reforms in the tax system and broader fiscal policy are expected to enhance economic activity, while higher domestic oil output is anticipated to help offset lower global oil prices, a crucial factor for fiscal revenue and external balances.
Prudent monetary management and structural adjustments have contributed to greater macroeconomic stability in recent years, a trend that has bolstered business confidence and facilitated stronger output across multiple sectors.
The World Bank’s projection points to a gradual diversification of Nigeria’s economy away from an overreliance on crude oil revenues. While hydrocarbons remain an important source of foreign exchange and fiscal income, the expansion of services and non-oil industries suggests a more balanced growth trajectory.
A rebound in agricultural output is also expected to support broader economic expansion, contributing to job creation and rural development.
Despite the positive forecast, the World Bank cautions that long-standing structural challenges must be addressed to sustain and translate headline growth figures into inclusive development outcomes. Persistent issues such as infrastructure deficits, food price inflation, and regulatory bottlenecks continue to constrain productivity in key sectors.
Addressing these barriers will be critical to ensuring that the projected growth is not only fast but also equitable and durable, with tangible benefits for households and businesses across the country.
The upbeat projection for Nigeria stands out against a backdrop of moderate global economic growth. The World Bank expects the global economy to grow at around 2.6 per cent in 2026, with emerging markets and developing economies showing resilience amid persistent uncertainties.
For Africa’s largest economy, the upgraded outlook reflects recent efforts to stabilize foreign exchange markets, streamline fiscal policy, and create an enabling environment for private investment. Continued commitment to structural reforms and diversification will be key to sustaining growth and improving living standards for Nigeria’s rapidly expanding population.
